Uganda needs to grow by $2.7 billion a year to reach middle income in 10 years


At the current growth rates of 4.7%, it will take Uganda almost 24 years to reach lower middle income status as defined by the world bank. Let's see what it would take to do it in 10.
Lower middle income economies are currently defined by the world bank as having a per capita income of $1,026 and above.
Uganda's GDP per capita in 2015 was $705, growing at 1.778%. I couldn't find exact figures but I'm going to assume the current per capita is $720.
To get from $720 to $1026 in ten years, Uganda's per capita will need to grow at 3.61% (I used a compound interest calculation here).
In 2015 our population was growing at  3.253%. Assuming it is still growing at the same rate and stays that way, GDP would have to grow at 6.98% for Uganda to hit middle income in 10 years time.
If our current GDP is $28 Billion. We need to have a gdp of $55 Billion in 10 years to be middle income. Meaning we need to add $27 Billion  in new productivity in ten years, or an average of $2.7 billion every year.
In summary, assuming a steady population growth rates of 3.25%, a current per capita of 720$ and a current GDP of $28 Billion. Uganda's economy needs to grow by an average of $2.7 billion every year for the next ten years for us to reach middle income status in those ten years. Quite achievable. That's just over half what Alphabet(Google) makes in three months. In fact a single business venture could pull this off.

Photo Credit: By Andrew Regan (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Comments